Assessment of early mitigation measures against COVID-19 in Puerto Rico: March 15-May 15, 2020.
Assessment of early mitigation measures against COVID-19 in Puerto Rico: March 15-May 15, 2020.
Blog Article
On March 15, 2020 Puerto Rico implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), including a mandatory curfew, as part of a state of emergency declaration to prevent the community transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus.The strict enforcement of this curfew was extended through May 25, with a gradual relaxation beginning on May 1.This report summarizes an assessment of these early mitigation measures on the progression of the COVID-19 pandemic in the island.
From March 15 to May 15, Situation of the Turkmens of the Stavropol province in the 19th century (historiographical review) 2020, 70,656 results of molecular (RT-PCR) tests were reported to the Puerto Rico Department of Health.Of these, 1,704 were positive, corresponding to 1,311 individuals with COVID-19 included in the study.We derived the epidemic growth rates (r) and the corresponding reproductive numbers (R) from the epidemic curve of these 1,311 individuals with laboratory-confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19 using their date of test collection as a proxy for symptoms onset.
Through May 31, 2020, there were 143 COVID-19 associated deaths in Puerto Rico, for a case fatality risk of 10.9%.We compared the observed cases and deaths with Gompertz model projections had the mitigation measures not been implemented.
The number of daily RT-PCR-confirmed cases peaked on March 30 (85 cases), showing a weekly cyclical trend, with lower counts on weekends and a decreasing secular trend since March 30.The initial exponential growth rate (r) was 15.87% (95% CI: 7.
59%, 24.15%), corresponding to R of 1.82 (95% CI:1.
37, 2.30).After March 30, the r value reverted to an exponential decay rate (negative) of -2.
95% (95% CI: -4.99%, -0.92%), corresponding to R of 0.
93 (95% CI: 0.86, 0.98).
We estimate that, had the initial growth rate been maintained, a total of 6,155 additional COVID-19 cases would have occurred by May 15, with 211 additional COVID-19 deaths by May Living standard and access to tetanus toxoid immunization among women in Bangladesh 31.These findings are consistent with very effective implementation of early NPIs as mitigation measures in Puerto Rico.These results also provide a baseline to assess the impact of the transition from mitigation to subsequent containment stages in Puerto Rico.